Friday, May 20, 2011

Question: Where Should the In-Person Assessments Have Occurred?

This is definitely something exploratory, and it's certainly not intended to be predictive. I am just musing here, partially to determine whether the in-person assessment locations were sound or not.

So the question is this: Based on what we know of the 2011 semifinalist pool, where would the most effective in-person assessment locations have been? Let's broaden that a bit to get at what we really might want to know. Which cities with a Federal presence would have made good cities in which to conduct PMF in-person assessments, based on what we know about where the semifinalists (those invited to the in-person assessments) presumably originated? I hope that's a clear question, but we can break this down into components so the criteria are better defined, and the follow-up questions are enumerated.

  • Federal presence: This can mean one of a few things. First, and fundamentally, is there any Federal agency with an office in the city? For many cities, the answer is a qualified yes. Qualified, because even if a city has some Federal presence, this does not mean that the city is at all suited to hosting in-person assessments, either because it is located too far away from the bulk of semifinalists, or because it is simply too small to provide convenient transportation options. It turns out there is another way we can measure Federal presence in a city: The Federal Executive Boards (FEB). FEBs form a nationwide network of Federal branches providing communication and collaboration solutions to agencies outside the DC area. Given their wide geographic distribution, it seems clear that FEB cities might serve as a good starting point to analyze future in-person assessments. In the graphics below, I show a summary view of how many semifinalists were listed as closest to each of these cities.
  • Semifinalists: I chose semifinalists from this year 1) because there were semifinalists for 2011, and 2) because semifinalists were the ones invited to take in-person assessments. It doesn't make much sense to me to choose nominees or finalists for this particular comparison, although choosing nominees would at least provide some information for future planning. What we know about semifinalists is the school they listed in their materials, and not much more. This is a limitation of the data set, of course, but it's all we have to work with. What we have to assume from it is that the schools in question were correctly identified for purposes of geolocation; that every semifinalists were correctly listed with their schools; and that the locations of the schools reflect the geographic origins of the semifinalists. That's a tall order, but again, what choice do we have? Some of these schools conduct extensive online programs that mean students could be widely dispersed beyond the brick-and-mortar campus. What we have, then, is close enough approximation of the truth for this analysis.
Now our question becomes this: Of the FEB cities, which are closely located around the most 2011 semifinalists? That is a question we can answer. I took the cities in which there are FEB offices and calculated the distance from that city to each of the 278 schools represented in the semifinalist data. Then I figured out, for each school, which was the closest FEB city. And finally, I aggregated the FEBs and summed up the semifinalists that were listed as closest to each FEB. That data is shown below:



One thing you'll notice, of course, is that Washington, DC, is listed here, even though it's not an FEB location. I trust you'll understand why this is the case. Regardless, what we see is that, outside Washington, DC, the top 5 FEB locations are Boston (161), Atlanta (118), New York City (110), Chicago (92), and San Francisco (76). If we were looking for validation of the 2011 in-person assessment location choices, this might suffice. What the top 5 FEB list doesn't really account for, though, is that there are significant numbers in other locations. The trick here would be to determine locations that are central to a region in some way. DC makes sense for most of the East Coast, especially given the ease of transportation between, for instance, Boston and DC. It is entirely fitting, then, to keep DC as an assessment location. Atlanta also makes sense for large portions of the South. The Midwest is well served by Chicago, and the West Coast is well served by San Francisco (although Los Angeles looks to be a good second choice). That just leaves areas like the North Plains and the Southwest less well served. But we can frame a different question that might help here. Let's eliminate all but one NE city (DC), one Southern city (Atlanta), one Midwest city (Chicago) and one Western city (San Francisco), leaving the others on the list to see what we can come up with. That leaves us with the following:



Based on this, I think we can recommend that either a city in Texas or Oklahoma City could serve as the only other location needed. I am choosing OKC because of its fairly central location compared to Denver and Albuquerque. If we do that, then the numbers look like this:



Even so, the payoff for adding OKC is much lower than other locations, and it may not ultimately be worth the effort to add the assessment location.

Next, let's see if we can determine whether there's a distance factor involved here. That is, if we take these five locations, is there an average distance we're looking for that might be ideal? The first table shows us a widely variable average distance between the school and the assessment center.



The largest average is for DC, but this can be partially explained by the large distribution of semifinalists (Boston to a point about halfway between Atlanta and DC) and the inclusion of overseas schools in this list, all of which are in excess of 2000 miles away. There aren't many, but they are enough to affect the result. Filtering those out will give us perhaps something more meaningful.



So there you have it. These are pretty good distances from what I can tell, but I am interested to know what you all think. As one final point of comparison, here are the average distances to the original in-person assessment locations. By omitting OKC, we raise the averages for Chicago, San Francisco, and Atlanta, but DC is unaffected.



Conclusion
So after examining the locations that might have made sense for the in-person assessment, what we found is that the original locations seemed to be about right. We could fragment the assessment centers a bit more by adding one in OKC, but doing much more than that seems to have a lower benefit. What do you all think? Were these distances doable for you? I know many of you would have preferred not to travel as far as you did, but consider the alternatives (such as all in-person assessments being held in DC). What locations do you think should be considered?

2011 PMF Appointments: Another Open Thread

The reason for this post is simple: I have Google set to turn on comment moderation on posts older than 30 days. If I don't post something today or tomorrow, those of you still conversing will have to wait for your comments to be published by me. Not only does this hamper your conversations, it is a bit burdensome to me as well, which is why I changed the site from moderating everything to what it is now (that was a while ago). Had I not done that, I would have had to approve all of the 2000+ comments you all have written over the past 3 months. As it is, I READ every comment, but I don't feel the need to moderate them all.

Anyway, please continue sharing your experiences as you go. I am planning some other exploratory and data analysis posts, but that process has gone a bit slower than I had desired. (This is *totally* not a call for some part-time help, no way, no how...OK, it is, if anyone wants to)

I'm not posting this one on GovLoop, because the threads over there are far from full. Ghost town is more like it.

Oh, and if there is a specific kind of post you would like me to write, let me know. I do take requests.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

2011 PMF Survey: How did you do?

If you are a 2011 PMF finalist, please take the time to fill out this survey. I am collecting this information to get an idea of how effective the job fair was, and some information about the placement rates and geographic distribution of finalist appointments. If your information changes, go ahead and submit a new form. I will perform all the data cleanup this time next year or thereabout, once you all have had a chance to secure an appointment. Pass this link around to all of the 2011 PMFs you know or meet over the next year. If you want access to the information, email me at pmfellow@gmail.com and tell me your name, your school, and your degree so I can make sure you are who you say you are.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

More PMF Finalist Data Visualizations

This is just a quick, fun update, an excuse to aggregate some data and display it in pretty charts for you. Good luck at the job fair, everyone! It looks like I will be at the GovLoop happy hour tomorrow after all, so look for a guy in a luchador mask ;)

The bar chart below is a Google Fusion Tables visualization of the absolute number of finalists year on year for the 10 top academic fields. That is, I took the ten academic fields that have produced the most PMF finalists in all the data years I have, then looked at each one in terms of how many finalists graduated with those degree fields in each year. It's obvious from this that the single largest group of finalists have law degrees, and other two of the top three fields are International Affairs/Administration/Studies and Public Administration/Policy. I don't think there's anything here that you didn't already know.

I also did this with the ten schools that have produced the most PMF finalists from 2009-2011. Again, we can see some pretty obvious things. First, four schools absolutely crush all of the others in terms of representation among finalists: George Washington, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, and Harvard. Perhaps interestingly, the total number of finalists from these schools decrease in order of increasing distance from OPM (GW is right across the street from the OPM building, FYI).

These charts reinforce things we already know, or that we think we know. What about looking at the data a different way? After thinking about it, I tried sorting to see if there were any schools with finalists this year that didn't have any in 2009 or 2010. I came up with 57, and all but six of them fielded only 1 finalist this year. These are listed below.

I think there are some other ways I can explore this data, especially once it has all been completely loaded into my database for programmatic manipulation, aggregation, and such. As I get time and finish the imports, I will produce more of this.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Misc: Job Fair Guide, Happy Hour, and Collaboration Call

Since I didn't want to post three new (short) posts in succession, I figured I would lump these together. Anyway most of you are probably either in DC already or in various stages of arrival, so I want to keep this brief and to the point.

First, of course, there is the job fair. A number of folks working over at GovLoop have been kind and diligent enough to put together a pretty comprehensive guide to the PMF job fair. If you need some airplane reading, why not check it out? I haven't gone through all of it yet, but I concur with what I've read so far. It's at http://www.govloop.com/page/pmf-job-fair-guide

Second, also courtesy of GovLoop, a group of current and former PMFs will be meeting up for a happy hour on Wednesday, April 20 from 5:30 to 7:30 PM at Old Dominion Brewery. More details and an RSVP form are at http://pmfgovup.eventbrite.com/

And finally, the collaboration call. So far, contentious though some of your banter has been, you have shown a great deal of willingness to collaborate, as evidenced by your shared Google Spreadsheet. Here is what I was hoping I could get you all to do. Using that same collaborative energy, let's try to collect as much tabular PMF information as we can. You can see the kind of information that is missing from the PMF site where it displays the finalist lists. Compare that with some of the requests you've made on the data visualization thread, and hopefully you can see where this is going. So we start with the data I already have in tabular format (I will be happy to make it available, names and all), and as you or finalists you know from this year's class accept PMF appointments, simply add into the spreadsheet which agency and the city and state where the appointee will be working. Is this something you all are interested in doing? With that data, we can, for probably the first time, gain an understanding of the geographic distribution of PMF placements, as opposed to the distribution of schools attended. Let me know in the comments what you would need to get this going, and I will provide my cleaned up data shared from my pmfellow@gmail.com account.

Friday, April 8, 2011

PMF Data 2009-2011

[Update 4/11/2011: As promised to those of you looking for CSV/Excel formatted data, here it is: http://pmfellow.kodingen.com/scripts/getcsv.php]

Here is another quick update to let you know that I have made available all of the finalists data from 2009-2011, in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format. If you ask nicely and want it, I can offer it in other formats as well.

The data can be retrieved here: http://pmfellow.kodingen.com/scripts/getjson.php

Available fields and descriptions are as follows:

  • label: Either an MD5 hashed version of the original finalist name, or, because I didn't have the names available when I imported the data, something like "applicantX" where X is an incremental number.
  • type: Currently only finalists are available, but when I get to it, other valid values, for which there are available rows, will be "semifinalists" and "nominees."
  • year: The PMF class year. Not every record type is available for every year.
  • rank: This is just the database unique record identifier; you don't really need it for anything.
  • school: The corrected name of the school the individual PMF attended. By corrected, I mean the standardization I undertook as part of the record cleanup.
  • field: Individual's academic field. No effort to standardize or clean these up occurred.
  • latlng: The latitude and longitude of the school, as determined by a separate geocoding script. I expect some percentage of error to have occurred here, but see below for error reporting.
If you have questions about the data or spot any obvious errors, please let me know in the comments. As stated above, I have the greatest expectation of errors in the latitude and longitude data, but this can be fixed pretty easily if you just tell me which school is wrong, and what the correct lat/long should be.

Also, feel free to use the data however you see fit. If you have anything you're trying to put together, I would be happy to link to it. Similarly, I would be happy to help if you want data that's not currently there (assuming I have it).

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The Furlough and the Job Fair

A number of you have been speculating about what would happen if Congress and the President cannot work out an agreeable budget for the rest of the fiscal year and annual appropriations lapse. Specifically, you have been wondering about the status of this year's PMF job fair. Today, OPM has released some information that you may find interesting, although it doubtless will not set your mind at ease.

Most of OPM operates on funds that are not annually appropriated by Congress, so in the event of a funding lapse, a good deal of OPM will still operate, at least for a while. In the event of a prolonged lapse, a number of these operations may cease if they ran out of money. The Presidential Management Fellows Program Office operates from non-appropriated funds and would be able to continue operations. However, if no budget is in place prior to the PMF job fair, the job fair will have to be postponed, since many of the agencies who would have attended would themselves be furloughed. So this is the answer to how the looming government shutdown will affect you: it depends, but only on the duration of the shutdown.

I wanted to provide this information as soon as I came across it just to make you all aware. For more information about what I just discussed, visit OPM's special page at http://www.opm.gov/furlough/opm/